Τρίτη, 7 Φεβρουαρίου 2012

One Chart per day - The Greek Vise by Paul Krugman

Τι ζητά η Τρόικα από την Ελλάδα; Διαβάστε πώς το σχολιάζει ο Krugman σε αναδημοσίευση της ανάρτησής του. 

The Greek Vise by Paul Krugman
How much is the troika demanding from Greece? How tight is the squeeze? Here’s a look based on the most recent IMF report (pdf).

The current plan calls for Greece to move into large primary surplus — that is, surplus not counting interest payments on the debt














That’s a huge swing — and it’s supposed to happen in the face of a deeply depressed economy. Here’s what it implies for real government spending:












And here’s the thing: when this started, Greece was running a large primary deficit — which meant that even if it repudiated all its debt, it would still have been forced to make a major fiscal contraction. This is no longer true. So we’re now looking at a scenario in which Greece is forced into killing levels of austerity to pay its foreign creditors, with no real light at the end of the tunnel.
This is just not going to work.



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